Yankees visit Rangers in possible playoff preview

Baseball Betting Lines

09/10/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In a possible playoff preview, the New York Yankees and Texas Rangers will start up an intriguing three-game series between division leaders this evening at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.

If the current American League standings remain the same at the end of the regular season, the Yankees and Rangers would face one another in the best-of- five AL Division Series. New York presently controls its own destiny for the top seed, owning a 2 1/2-game advantage on fellow AL East member Tampa Bay in the race, while Texas is 7 1/2 games in front of second-place Oakland in the AL West but is well back of the surging Minnesota Twins in the battle for the league's No. 2 seed.

The Rangers will be sending their potential Game 1 starter to the hill for tonight's opener in C.J. Wilson. The converted reliever has been sensational since the All-Star break, having amassed a 7-1 record and an excellent 2.67 earned run average in 10 second-half starts.

That lone defeat did take place in his most recent assignment, though, with Wilson tagged for six runs in 5 1/3 innings by the Twins this past Sunday in Minneapolis. It was the left-hander's first setback since July 11.

A return home may enable Wilson to get back on track, as he's compiled a stellar 10-2 mark with a 3.11 ERA in 16 starts in Arlington this year. The 29- year-old did face the Yankees at Rangers Ballpark on August 10, getting a no- decision in a 4-3 Texas triumph after allowing two runs in 5 1/3 innings of work.

Wilson was dealt a loss at Yankee Stadium back on April 16, however, and is 0-3 lifetime against New York in 19 appearances, all but two of which have come in relief.

Texas hasn't been playing its best baseball during the early stages of September, having recently had a five-game losing streak, but does come into this set off back-to-back road wins over Toronto. In Wednesday's finale, Mitch Moreland drove in three runs to back 6 1/3 solid innings from Colby Lewis as the Rangers came through with a 4-2 victory.

Vladimir Guerrero added three hits and scored twice for Texas, while Nelson Cruz went 2-for-4 with a run scored to help the Rangers salvage a split of the four-game series.

Lewis (10-12) halted a nine-start winless streak by limiting the Blue Jays to one run on five hits while striking out eight batters on the night. The right- hander had received seven losses and two no-decisions over his drought.

"It's definitely gratifying to get double digits [in wins], for sure," Lewis said afterward. "I just really wanted to bounce back after the two poor outings I had. That was the biggest thing I wanted to do today."

The Yankees take the road tonight for a challenging nine-game trek that includes three critical meetings with the rival Rays following this series. New York tuned up for this stretch with a needed 3-2 win over Baltimore on Wednesday, which snapped a string of three straight losses for the Bronx Bombers and prevented the pesky Orioles from a surprising sweep of the three- game set.

Baltimore came awfully close to getting the sweep, though, taking a 2-1 lead into the bottom of the ninth inning of the finale. However, Nick Swisher put the Yankees ahead to stay with a two-run homer off O's closer Koji Uehara with his team two outs away from another loss.

Swisher's game-winning blast scored Alex Rodriguez, who had singled off Uehara to begin New York's half of the ninth. Brett Gardner had a run-scoring double earlier in the afternoon, while three Yankee relievers combined for three scoreless innings to keep the deficit at a single run.

"The feeling is that we could come back," Yankees manager Joe Girardi said. "That's the feeling this club has always had. We've had some comebacks and they did a nice job."

Joba Chamberlain (3-4) picked up the win after striking out two Orioles in a perfect top of the ninth. Rookie Ivan Nova began the game for the Yankees and allowed a pair of runs while fanning six over six solid innings in his fourth big league start.

Girardi will hand the ball to Javier Vazquez this evening, with the veteran hurler getting another opportunity to work out his recent struggles. The offseason acquisition hasn't pitched more than 4 2/3 innings in any of his last three starts and was briefly removed from the rotation last month after a sequence of ineffective performances.

One of those subpar showings came against the Rangers in Arlington on August 11, with Vazquez roughed up for six runs and eight hits in a 4 1/3-inning no- decision. He followed up by lasted only four frames in a home loss to Detroit five days later, allowing two runs and issuing four walks.

Vazquez did pitch better in a pair of relief appearances to close out August, permitting just two runs and four hits over a combined nine innings while earning one win, but encountered trouble once again when placed back in a starting role this past Saturday. In a no-decision against Toronto, the 34- year-old gave up five runs and a pair of homers while walking four in 4 2/3 shaky innings.

This will be the seventh career start against the Rangers for Vazquez, who's 2-2 with a suspect 6.56 ERA over the previous six.

The Yankees have won four of five meetings with Texas this season, with the clubs splitting a two-game set in Arlington last month.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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