Hawks hope to snap funk in DC

Basketball Betting Lines

03/11/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Hawks hope to avoid a third straight loss when they wrap up a three-game road trip Thursday night against the Southeast Division-rival Washington Wizards at the Verizon Center.

Atlanta is winless so far on the trek and is coming off Monday's 99-98 setback at New York in which Josh Smith posted a team-high 25 points, grabbed 10 rebounds and handed out six assists. Al Horford did his best with 18 points and 12 boards for the Hawks, who have dropped two in a row since a four-game winning streak. Horford was unable to get off a possible game-winning shot as time expired.

"When I caught the ball, your instinct is just to shoot the ball. I wasn't aware of the clock, I didn't know what was going on. I just threw it up there," Horford told NBA.com "Obviously, it wasn't good but we had our chance."

Joe Johnson had 22 points and Sixth Man of the Year candidate Jamal Crawford posted 16 in defeat. Crawford leads the NBA in scoring among players that have not started a game.

The Hawks, who are 15-16 as the guest, fell four games behind Orlando for Southeast supremacy, but are tied with Boston for the third spot in the Eastern Conference standings. Both Atlanta and the Celtics have dropped two in a row since four-game win streaks.

Washington has lost four straight and opened a short homestand with Tuesday's 96-88 setback versus the Houston Rockets. Andray Blatche and Nick Young both netted 18 points, while Al Thornton ended with 15 points and nine rebounds for the Wizards, who are winless in their last four home games and 12-20 in DC.

"Their bigs outran our bigs," said Wizards head coach Flip Saunders. "We don't run as fast from offense to defense as defense to offense."

James Singleton added 12 points in the loss, Washington's sixth in its last seven tries. In 11 games since the All-Star break, Blatche has averaged 23.5 points and 10.4 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game.

Tonight's game is the third of four meetings between the Wizards and Hawks, as Atlanta holds a 2-0 edge and will visit Washington again on April 10. The Hawks have won the past seven matchups between the teams and are unbeaten in the previous four contests at the Verizon Center.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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